劉鶴在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇2023年年會(huì)上的特別致辭（下）
2023/1/19 8:37:19來(lái)源：英文巴士
房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是中國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。與房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)的貸款占銀行信貸的比重接近40%，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)相關(guān)收入占地方綜合財(cái)力的50%，房地產(chǎn)占城鎮(zhèn)居民資產(chǎn)的60%。2021年下半年以來(lái)，中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)價(jià)格和銷售急劇下降現(xiàn)象，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)普遍出現(xiàn)流動(dòng)性不暢、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表惡化，個(gè)別頭部企業(yè)面臨重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。我們認(rèn)為，房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域風(fēng)險(xiǎn)如果處置不當(dāng)，很容易引發(fā)系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，必須及時(shí)干預(yù)，但要注意處理好系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)系。第一，通過(guò)保護(hù)契約和產(chǎn)權(quán)，穩(wěn)定預(yù)期。針對(duì)涉及全國(guó)188萬(wàn)居民的2600多個(gè)已付款未交付項(xiàng)目，我們從“保交樓”入手，使市場(chǎng)避免恐慌。第二，大量輸血，改善房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的流動(dòng)性，主要包括商業(yè)銀行提供貸款、為房企發(fā)債提供擔(dān)保、促進(jìn)股權(quán)融資等。第三，放松在房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)過(guò)熱期間采取的管制措施，擴(kuò)大有效需求，使房地產(chǎn)公司具備造血功能。通過(guò)這些努力，市場(chǎng)供求關(guān)系開(kāi)始明顯改善。從未來(lái)看，中國(guó)仍處于城市化較快發(fā)展階段，巨大的需求潛力將為房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展提供有力支撐。Real estate sector is still a pillar for China’s economy. It accounts for nearly 40 percent of bank lending, 50 percent of overall local government fiscal resources, and 60 percent of urban household assets. From the second half of 2021, China experienced a rapid decline in property prices and home sales. Many property developers suffered from liquidity shortage and deteriorating balance sheet. The risks of a handful of leading property developers are particularly noticeable.If not handled properly, risks in the housing sector are likely to trigger systemic risks. That is why prompt steps must be taken to address them. That said, however, we should also prevent possible moral hazards while doing so. Here is what we have done.First, we have stabilized expectations by honoring contracts and protecting property rights. For the 2,600-plus pre-sold but unfinished housing projects that concern 1.88 million people across the country, we have made ensuring their delivery a priority, and this helped prevent panic in the market.Second, we have conducted massive “blood transfusion” to the real estate sector. The liquidity situation of real estate companies has been greatly enhanced by way of fresh bank lending, bond issuance guarantee, and equity financing.Third, we have helped the real estate sector with “blood formation”. We have relaxed restrictions that were once introduced to address the overheating in the property market. Such adjustment has expanded effective demand and enabled property developers to generate revenue.Thanks to these efforts, the supply and demand in the market has seen noticeable improvement. Looking ahead, China’s urbanization is still on a fast track, and the enormous potential demand generated in this process will provide a strong underpinning for the development of the real estate sector.
當(dāng)前，中國(guó)正在加快構(gòu)建以國(guó)內(nèi)大循環(huán)為主體、國(guó)內(nèi)國(guó)際雙循環(huán)相互促進(jìn)的新發(fā)展格局。國(guó)內(nèi)循環(huán)重點(diǎn)是擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需，完善產(chǎn)業(yè)體系，形成以消費(fèi)拉動(dòng)為主的增長(zhǎng)模式，推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)再平衡。這個(gè)邏輯是2008年以來(lái)的國(guó)際共識(shí)。順暢的國(guó)內(nèi)循環(huán)需要加強(qiáng)國(guó)際分工和合作，擴(kuò)大對(duì)外貿(mào)易和利用外資。新發(fā)展格局是開(kāi)放的國(guó)內(nèi)國(guó)際雙循環(huán)。中國(guó)的基本國(guó)情決定了必須對(duì)外開(kāi)放，不斷提高對(duì)外開(kāi)放質(zhì)量和水平，我們反對(duì)單邊主義、保護(hù)主義，希望全面加強(qiáng)國(guó)際合作，共同維護(hù)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定和發(fā)展，推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)再全球化。Right now, China is stepping up efforts to foster a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other. The focus of domestic circulation is on expanding internal demand, promoting industrial upgrade, developing a consumption-led growth model, and re-balancing the economy. (This is a logic reflecting international consensus since 2008.)However, for domestic circulation to function well, it must rely on international division of labor and cooperation, as well as more foreign trade and investment. Therefore, the new development paradigm of dual-circulation is to be pursued in an open economy.China’s national reality dictates that opening up to the world is a must, not an expediency. We must open up wider and make it work better. We oppose unilateralism and protectionism, and look forward to strengthening international cooperation with all countries for world economic stability and development, and the promotion of economic re-globalization.中國(guó)已經(jīng)全面建成小康社會(huì)，實(shí)現(xiàn)共同富裕是我們提出的重要社會(huì)發(fā)展目標(biāo)，也是實(shí)現(xiàn)中國(guó)長(zhǎng)治久安的歷史性任務(wù)。這是一項(xiàng)長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)任務(wù)，需要逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)，不可能一蹴而就。我們講的共同富裕，強(qiáng)調(diào)的是避免兩極分化，最終還是要靠共同發(fā)展，靠每個(gè)人的艱苦奮斗和勤勞致富，絕不是搞平均主義和福利主義。隨著中國(guó)發(fā)展，全體國(guó)民富裕程度將不斷提高，但任何情況下人們的收入水平、富裕程度都將存在一定差異。也就是說(shuō)，在機(jī)會(huì)面前人人平等，但結(jié)果還是不一樣的。在推動(dòng)共同富裕的歷史過(guò)程中，包括外商在內(nèi)的企業(yè)家都將發(fā)揮發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)的重要作用，因?yàn)樗麄兪巧鐣?huì)財(cái)富創(chuàng)造的關(guān)鍵要素，如果沒(méi)有財(cái)富的逐步積累，共同富裕就成了無(wú)源之水、無(wú)本之木。Now that China has completed the mission of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, we have come up with a new social development goal of achieving common prosperity, a historical mission that will help us ensure lasting stability. It is a long-term task that requires an incremental and gradual approach. It is not something to be achieved overnight.Common prosperity, as we see it, is aimed at preventing polarization. It can only be attained through common development and the hard work of every Chinese. Common prosperity is by no means a synonym of egalitarianism or welfarism. As China grows, all Chinese people will be better off, but that doesn’t mean their incomes and level of prosperity have to be the same. (That is to say, there will be equal opportunities, but no guarantee of equal outcomes)Entrepreneurship is a key factor for wealth creation of a society. Therefore, entrepreneurs, both Chinese and foreign, will play an important role as the engine driving China’s historical pursuit of common prosperity. If wealth doesn’t grow, common prosperity will become a river without source or a tree without roots.“在分裂的世界中加強(qiáng)合作”，這個(gè)主題有很強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)針對(duì)性。習(xí)近平主席指出，當(dāng)前，世界之變、時(shí)代之變、歷史之變正以前所未有的方式展開(kāi)，世界又一次站在歷史的十字路口，何去何從取決于各國(guó)人民的選擇。The theme of this meeting, “Cooperation in a Fragmented World”, is highly relevant. As President Xi Jinping noted, changes of our world, of our times, and of history are unfolding in front of us in unprecedented ways. The world has once again come at a historical crossroad, and its future hinges on the choices we make.關(guān)于如何解決世界合作問(wèn)題，我想提出三點(diǎn)觀察。As for how to advance international cooperation, I would like to share with you the following three observations.第一，堅(jiān)持正確的原則，維護(hù)有效的國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序。面對(duì)新形勢(shì)，傳統(tǒng)的思維方式無(wú)法提供出路，我們必須放棄冷戰(zhàn)思維，從物質(zhì)二相性的角度認(rèn)識(shí)事物的本質(zhì)。著眼于建立人類命運(yùn)共同體，攜手應(yīng)對(duì)全球性挑戰(zhàn)。我們認(rèn)為，合理的國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序必須共同維護(hù)，關(guān)于合理分工、鼓勵(lì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)、反對(duì)壟斷、保護(hù)產(chǎn)權(quán)和知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)、弘揚(yáng)企業(yè)家精神、促進(jìn)要素自由流動(dòng)、堅(jiān)持公平分配、完善社會(huì)安全網(wǎng)、維護(hù)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定等經(jīng)濟(jì)原理沒(méi)有改變，政府應(yīng)該在重大問(wèn)題上發(fā)揮作用，面對(duì)暫時(shí)出現(xiàn)的阻力和倒退，我們應(yīng)當(dāng)勇于堅(jiān)持真理，尊重規(guī)律，用務(wù)實(shí)樸素的辦法解決復(fù)雜的問(wèn)題。First, we need to uphold the right principles and maintain the effective international economic order. Under the new circumstances, the traditional way of thinking cannot provide the solution. That is why we have to abandon the cold war mentality, try to understand the nature of things from the perspective of material duality, endeavor to build a community with a shared future for mankind, and join hands to respond to global challenges. We believe that an equitable international economic order must be preserved by all. Equitable division of labor, encouragement of competition, anti-monopoly, protection of property rights and IPRs, promoting entrepreneurship and free flow of production factors, fair distribution, a strong social safety net, and ensuring macroeconomic stability are the well-proven economic principles that are still relevant today. Government has a key role to play on major issues, despite temporary resistance and some setbacks, we must have the courage to uphold truth and law of economics, and address complex issues pragmatically with plain and simple solutions.第二，加強(qiáng)國(guó)際宏觀政策協(xié)調(diào)，平衡好治理通脹和穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系。目前一些國(guó)家采取的應(yīng)對(duì)思路是“通脹—加息—衰退—復(fù)蘇”。需要注意的是，本輪通脹是復(fù)合型通脹，成因復(fù)雜，除了需求側(cè)因素外，應(yīng)當(dāng)供需兩端同時(shí)發(fā)力，同步修復(fù)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈供應(yīng)鏈，高度重視能源安全、糧食安全，這就必須推動(dòng)國(guó)際合作，維護(hù)和平，合力應(yīng)對(duì)共同性挑戰(zhàn)。我們呼吁，大國(guó)在加息的同時(shí)，應(yīng)高度重視此舉對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家產(chǎn)生的負(fù)面外溢性，防止加重債務(wù)和金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。我們也同意與各方一道，推動(dòng)解決一些發(fā)展中國(guó)家的債務(wù)問(wèn)題。Second, we need to strengthen international macro policy coordination and strike a good balance between inflation and growth. To tame inflation, some countries have chosen the policy that will likely result in the hike-recession-recovery loop. But it is important to note that inflation this time around is driven by multiple factors. Apart from the demand side, supply-side measures are also needed to repair the supply chains and preserve energy and food security.A joint response to this challenge requires international cooperation and maintenance of peace. We call for more attention to the negative spillover effect of major countries’ rate hikes on the emerging markets and developing countries so as not to add to more debt or financial risks. We stand ready to work with all parties to find solutions to the debt issues of some developing countries.第三，積極應(yīng)對(duì)全球氣候變化。世界上多數(shù)國(guó)家都已認(rèn)識(shí)到氣候治理的緊迫性，需要采取共同行動(dòng)。新冠病毒流行發(fā)生以后，我們認(rèn)識(shí)到氣候變化和公共衛(wèi)生危機(jī)存在著某種關(guān)聯(lián)，在這個(gè)問(wèn)題上需要開(kāi)展有效的國(guó)際合作。我們將堅(jiān)守對(duì)國(guó)際社會(huì)做出的承諾，積極推動(dòng)氣候變化領(lǐng)域國(guó)際合作，共同有效應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化帶來(lái)的諸多嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)，推動(dòng)構(gòu)建人類命運(yùn)共同體。Third, we need a global response to climate change. Most countries in the world are keenly aware of the urgency of climate governance and the need for common actions. COVID-19 has revealed to us a possible connection between climate change and public health crisis. This is an area where effective international cooperation is needed.China will honor its commitments to the international community, push for global cooperation on climate change, and work with other countries to tackle the serious challenges posed by climate change, and build a community with a shared future for mankind.在分裂的世界中加強(qiáng)合作，是我們面臨的現(xiàn)實(shí)問(wèn)題，應(yīng)當(dāng)坦誠(chéng)面對(duì)分裂現(xiàn)狀，深入分析其原因，提倡正和博弈，找到有可能擴(kuò)大合作的共同點(diǎn)，探求擴(kuò)大合作的有效機(jī)制，堅(jiān)定維護(hù)世界和平。非常感謝這次達(dá)沃斯論壇為我們提供了這樣一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)，我由衷祝愿本次論壇圓滿成功，為推進(jìn)分裂世界中的國(guó)際和平和國(guó)際合作作出貢獻(xiàn)。How to strengthen cooperation in a fragmented world is a real problem we all face. We must dig deep into the causes of fragmentation, promote positive-sum games, identify the possible converging areas of cooperation, and explore the mechanisms for doing so. We must work together to firmly safeguard world peace. We should be grateful that this year’s Davos Forum presents us with an opportunity to do just that. I wish the Forum a full success, and hopefully, it can help us strengthen cooperation and preserve peace in a fragmented world.Thank you for your attention. Thank you.
